2026 Spring Forwarder Magazine

12 THE FORWARDER | SPRING 2026 The conference included several key presentations, including a speech on “Making Sense of Federal Budget Changes”, presented by Sahir Khan , Co-founder and Executive Vice-President of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy (IFSD) at uOttawa walked attendees through recent changes to the federal budget process. He shared insights on how public affairs and government relations professionals and advocates more broadly can engage effectively in fiscal decision-making, helping shape policies that matter. Khan highlighted that data drives decisions and performance and is needed to guide government decision-making, for new decisions, reallocation and reductions. But the needs are specific and must inform efficiency and effectiveness. The federal government’s Budget 2025 represents a clear pivot away from a decade of social program and wealth transfer to a defence and economic growth agenda. On budget deficit, Khan projected that Canada remains sustainable over the long range but that “flex” is gone. The 2025-26 deficit ended up at the low-end of the IFSD range reflecting the economic context and limited appetite for major expenditure, he said. Debt-to-GDP, meanwhile, is expected to bump along in the 42-43% range restricting spending in the medium-term. Key takeaways on the 2025 budget for advocates included the following: 1. Not a generational budget, but a significant pivot away from a decade of a social policy and wealth transfer- driven agenda. 2. A profound shift to capital budgeting will impose tough constraints on spending a) The government will borrow for capital, not operating spending 3. Canada remains fiscally sustainable over the long-term but little room for new permanent spending without corresponding economic growth. 4. We expect fiscal reviews and reallocations to continue 5. Switch to fall budget is better for fiscal framework and estimate alignment 6. Important targeting of the business investment gap that has opened up since 2014 with the US. a) Will depend on the private sector for leverage on investments 7. The importance of quality execution of the plan cannot be overstated. 8. The impact of this budget and its philosophy will take time for us to be able to see the full effect, the nature of generational change Strategies for advocates working on the pitch? Khan advised the following: 1. Pitch capital - the government will borrow for capital but not operating spending 2. Reallocation will be a key source of funds – what can the government cut to fund new things 3. Stress results - execution matters more than ribbon cuttings 4. Change in timing – the summer months will be important for pre-budget submissions 5. A full pipeline of projects and stressed Public Service will put more onus on advocates to develop their own evidence a) Aligning with the government’s agenda b) Clarity over the problem to be solved c) Rigorous costing d) Demonstration of economic value with credible forecasts (e.g. job creation, R&D, capital formation) e) Plausible performance framework that Treasury Board can use f) Implementation plan for departmental or stakeholder delivery, with risk management strategy CIFFA’s Advocacy Team attended NextGen 2026, a conference geared to Public Affairs professionals, in Ottawa on February 23.